Perhaps the biggest mystery facing an entrepreneur is how to value the business. For many founders, the valuation of the enterprise is cloaked in mystery and is often left to others to calculate. A founding entrepreneur may feel that the company is worth millions of dollars while a potential investor is thinking in the hundreds of thousands.
The valuation process is especially difficult for a "pre-revenue" company - a firm without any sales, i.e. no track record. The founder is excited and believes in rapid and continuing growth, while the investor is thinking that it will take "twice as long and cost twice as much" to develop the enterprise than what is being forecast.
An entrepreneur recently presented his business plan to a large group of investors. The business was pre-revenue and showed great promise. When asked what he felt his company was worth, the entrepreneur produced a "valuation analysis" that he had paid several thousand dollars to a consultant to produce. The analysis indicated a current value of $14 million. The investors were shocked, feeling that the firm might be worth about $2 million in its present phase. The analyst had used a discounted cash flow approach, making no adjustment for risk. Since the proforma income statement projected high growth, it yielded a high value based upon the method utilized. The meeting ended with no investor interest.
Several alternative methods are available to assist in estimating value: the cost approach (value of company is closely related to its book value); discounted cash flow (several variations exist in using this method); the venture capital method; and comparing the company to similar companies in the same market using ratios such as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) compared to the value of the comparative enterprises.
As the venture capital method is not widely understood in the marketplace, we will take a look at what the investors are thinking as they value an emerging company. This method is widely used, since new ventures often have few assets, no past sales history and there may be no comparable companies.