Don't let optimism ruin your credibility

08/28/2005
Brigham Young University
By By Eric Farr Printed in the Deseret News

Do you think you're a safer driver than the average person?

Welcome to the club.

Research indicates that 76 percent of us think we are safer than average drivers, which means that a whole bunch of us are dead wrong.

This phenomenon is called the optimism bias, which suggests that most of us have an optimistic view of ourselves and our future. As optimists, we consider ourselves in control. Consequently, we think we are more likely to have positive events take place in our lives.

Most of us experience this from time to time. Consider these questions: Do you think you are less likely than your peers to die early due to the onset of heart disease or cancer? Do you think you are more likely than your peers to have gifted children? Do you believe that you will attain more wealth than the median wealth of your peers?

If you answered "yes" to some or all of these questions, then you probably suffer from optimism bias.

At least occasionally.

And that's OK. There are far worse things from which to suffer. But you should be aware of how this bias may affect your thoughts as an entrepreneur (and by the way, the fact that you are an entrepreneur is probably the best indicator that you are optimistically biased).

Generally speaking, optimism can be a good thing. It has helped me through difficult times during my entrepreneurial career. But there are at least three ways in which entrepreneurial optimism can impede otherwise good ideas.

First, as an optimist, you probably consider your chances for entrepreneurial success to be better than average. The stark truth, according to Dun & Bradstreet, is that 50 percent of new ventures actually fail within five years. So no matter how good the picture looks, your chances of failure are real, and you should always keep that in the back of your mind. I certainly wouldn't suggest dwelling on the possibility of failure, but it is good to keep your downside risk in check. Over the long run, doing this may help you make better business and personal decisions.

Second, your optimistic view may lead you to believe that tomorrow will be better - even when it won't. The other day I was talking to a friend who is a successful entrepreneur. He told me that early in his career he spent about 10 years working on a business about which he was extremely optimistic. But the business was in a slow-growth market and was probably never going to grow substantially no matter how hard he worked or how patient he was. Today, many years and a few companies later, he looks back on that particular business and understands that he was probably too optimistic about it. He was in a "dog" business and probably should have cut bait earlier to move on to a business that was more likely to succeed.

Finally, I have a seen a few entrepreneurs face their business stakeholders (including shareholders, potential investors, vendors and customers) with an overly optimistic view of their business outlook. Some of these entrepreneurs have allowed their optimism to cloud reality. In fact, a few times I have felt the need to grab the feet of the entrepreneur and pull him or her back down to earth. Most stakeholders are savvy enough to know when someone is looking through rose-colored glasses, and most will not tolerate this for very long. If you are too optimistic, you will lose credibility and your stakeholders will begin to doubt you even when you are not being overly optimistic.

Be optimistic, but don't let it get the best of you.

author1 is associated with the BYU Center for Entrepreneurship. He can be reached via e-mail at Mr. Farr is associated with the BYU Center for Entrepreneurship. He can be reached via e-mail at cfe@byu.edu. .