Success needs more than idea

09/29/02
Brigham Young University
By By Stephen W. Gibson Printed in the Deseret News

It started out like many phone calls I get.

"Hey Steve, I have this brilliant business idea I would like to discuss with you. Can we get together today?" the caller asked, almost pleading.

As we talked on the phone, I learned that he had a possibly viable idea for joining two huge industries together with a technical product that would solve a distribution problem that was plaguing both of them. We arranged for a speedy lunch at my favorite sandwich shop, where on a yellow pad, Jason (not his real name) diagramed a technical product that could be marketed from kiosks in airports throughout the world. I was convinced that if the product could be produced, it could solve a big problem for two industries. And as a business opportunity, it had the potential to be huge -- maybe a $150 million per year deal.

But here's the rub. Does Jason have the skills, resources and tenacity to pull off his groundbreaking, revolutionary idea? No! Does he have the technical ability to produce the product? No! Does he have sufficient contacts he can trust who can plug in the missing pieces? No! Can he adequately protect his idea through patents to prevent his idea from being stolen by the "big boys" with the problem? I doubt it.

Then is his idea an opportunity worth pursuing? I think not. It is a classic example of the difference between an idea (of which there is an abundance) and an opportunity worth pursuing (of which there is a shortage).

Jason has a great idea, and it could be the opportunity of a lifetime. But let's look at his situation. His research shows that his idea, with proper diagrams and technical data, is patentable; however, the patent will cost $20,000. And that presents his first problem: he doesn't have the money. Like many idea people, he has the idea but not a job or any serious savings.

Secondly, if he had the $20,000 or could raise it, is it a good idea to get the patent? What if he gets the patent and someone -- someone big -- likes the idea from studying the patent and begins producing the product. What is Jason going to do -- sue? Where is he going to get the money to do that? Is getting the patent a good way for protection or a vehicle to spread the word about the concept and let someone else steal the idea?

 

Let's say he has the patent and no one copies his idea. What next? Jason estimates that it will take $10 million minimum to bring his product to life. That is just the research and development side. He also needs to finance the marketing-distribution channel so the revenue steam gets going in the right direction -- into his pocket instead of out of it.

But even before marketing, Jason has to think about production costs. How much does it cost to produce the product? Yes, it solves a problem, but does it solve it at a price the consumer will pay? That is a key issue in any "new to market" undertaking.

And even if Jason gets the patent, no one steals the idea, he gets $10 million to create the device, gets his marketing channels in place and launches -- does he still have first-mover advantage or has Sony, Microsoft, DreamWorks, Compaq or AOL Time Warner beat him to market with a competitive product that is cheaper, faster and easier to use?

Thus goes the battle in the mind of an entrepreneur. High risk? You bet. High reward? You bet. But even though Jason's idea is brilliant, I wouldn't bet on it. Would you?

author1 is associated with the BYU Center for Entrepreneurship. He can be reached via e-mail at Mr. Williams is associated with the BYU Center for Entrepreneurship. He can be reached via e-mail at cfe@byu.edu. .