Most businesses are reasonably predictable, at least within certain parameters. A clear 12- to 24-month monthly projection of financial performance will generally predict cash shortfall periods. This doesn't require sophisticated software. A simple extrapolation of current financial statements in any spreadsheet software program will allow you to project with reasonable accuracy the elements of your business by line item. The longer you run the business, the more predictable the patterns will become.
Every month when new financials become available, those should be entered into the pro forma with careful attention to variances from the earlier projection. The projection will become a valuable road map spelling out the cash requirements of the business in coming months.
Too often it comes as a revelation to entrepreneurs that there can be a significant difference between financial statement profits and free cash flow in a business. I have a friend who owned a parking business. He had no receivables, and his inventory was simply the parking stalls on his property. He had minimal capital costs.
He told me that if his financial statement showed a profit of x, he could declare a dividend of x-10% because the cash flow closely mimicked the stated profits.
On the other hand, I owned a technology company that carried receivables and had a considerable capital cost as we continually reinvested in the new technology necessary to keep our products and services on the cutting edge. If our profit was x, we struggled to declare dividends equal to x-90%.
Although profits are the Holy Grail for businesspeople, current and future cash flows are actually a more accurate indicator of the health of a business. If inadequate cash flow is far and away the No. 1 reason entrepreneurs go out of business, good cash management will assure that you don't experience it.