"Predictions are hard," Yogi Berra said. "Especially when they are
about the future."
Yogi's statement is especially true in a time
when change is no longer slow or evolutionary. Change today is episodic
and random. These times defy prediction.
How can you plan for the future when change occurs
so quickly? Isn't planning futile because our current view of the
future is likely to be different from the real future when it arrives?
In a strange, almost surrealistic way, the leader
who can plan properly in these times will achieve a dramatic competitive
advantage. But old methods of planning will probably not work today.
We must adapt our planning methods to the new reality of rapid and
dramatic change.
To practice the new planning method, we must
understand that three types of decisions are required in a business
(as identified by friend Dave Sorensen of the Utah Manufacturing Extension
Partnership).
The first type of decision is operational —
deciding what to do right now to run the business. These decisions
include making the sales call, getting the order, making the product,
shipping the product and purchasing and scheduling. Operational decisions
are easily made because they must be made to continue the business.
Therefore, they are of little consequence.
The second type of decision is structural. These
are periodic decisions that provide limited guidelines for daily activities.
They include organizational changes, pricing policy, work flows and
operating procedures. Structural decisions are intermittent, somewhat
complex, of moderate consequence, relatively easy to make and self-forcing.
The third type of decision is strategic —
related to what the company is fundamentally about. These are infrequent,
extremely complex, have severe consequences and are not self-forcing.
Strategic decisions are the decisions that concern the future.
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During times like these,
strategic decisions should be made according to a strategic mapping
process rather than a strategic planning process. It is important
to understand the difference. The planning process seeks to work out
the details, answer the questions and give the complete view (business
plans, for example, are expected to answer the questions of venture
capitalists).
Strategic mapping, as described by William Easum
in his book "Dancing With Dinosaurs," is not a linear extrapolation
of the past into the future. We should be little concerned about where
we have been and focus more on where we are going.
As Easum says, strategic mapping is learning
to identify the routes to the future and avoiding the detours and
side roads that do not position us to be effective in the future.
It is the ability to understand the clues to the future and place
ourselves at the major intersections of the future instead of being
stranded on some dead-end trail.
Imagine yourself on a trip where you don't know
what you will be doing each day but are exploring the general territory.
You don't have reservations at a hotel for the evening but have some
ideas about the general nature of accommodations in the area. You
don't know what roads will be under construction, but you have a vision
of the terrain and have explored some of the paths that may open up
before you. You know what you want to see on the trip but are also
willing to see other sites as you become aware of them.
Sounds like a great way to explore Europe. Seems
like a great way to explore the future. |
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